降雨予測誤差を定量的に考慮した都市河川内水域における浸水予測手法の構築と検証
キーワード:
real-time flood forecasting,
ensemble flood forecasting,
locally heavy rainfall,
prediction rainfall error,
urban area
2012 年 18 巻 p. 453-458
詳細
2012 年 18 巻 p. 453-458
Recently, locally heavy rainfall occurs frequently at highly urbanized area, and causes serious personal accidents. Now, storm warnings/advisories are applied to evacuation and rescue, but they don’t have good much precision. So importance of flood forecasting system is growing in order to reduce damage of inundation. However, flood forecasting that secured lead-time for evacuation is extremely difficult, because the rainfall flows out immediately.
This study aims to develop real-time flood forecasting method using ensemble rainfall forecasting that considers prediction rainfall error, and evaluates usefulness of the method through case study in urban drainage areas.
