粒子フィルタと洪水追跡モデルを用いた水位流量曲線の作成および補正手法の開発

抄録

As an alternative to establish and update a water stage and discharge relationship (rating curve) using directly measured discharge, we developed a method to estimate a rating curve using a 2D dynamic wave model and particle filters, which considers possible conditions induced by uncertainties of inflow at the upper end of a study river channel, roughness parameters, and stage measurements. The method was applied to the Katsura River in Kyoto, Japan, and it was sequentially applied to the 2004 flood, the 2011 flood, and the 2013 flood. The flood hydrographs were reproduced without the measured discharge, and the rating curves were estimated. Dynamic characteristics of the flood and the uncertainties of the rating curve were also evaluated using the estimated state variables.