水害時の避難指示等の意思決定構造に関する研究

抄録

In addition to the frequent occurrences of large scale flood disasters, there is a concern about more frequent disasters arising from climate change due to global warming. Taking these conditions into account, it is required to establish/reinforce effective evacuation decision making system because cases which damages have spread are seen occasionally due to insufficient organization for mayor to decide. In order to establish/reinforce the decision making system, which have been not defined specifically concerning disaster prevention plan, it is required to reinforce the positioning of following information based on the latest knowledge in the evacuation decision making system; prediction information of precipitation and water level, and observation information of radar rainfall data, besides, preliminary risk assessment information with hazard maps that based on an upgrade calculation result of flood, from a view point of effective evacuation decision making system to be effective. Furthermore, since these decision makings denote a state switching of normal/emergency management, it is necessary to abstract the index that being criteria for state change which the character of regional flood events are reflected, and to organize the setting of threshold values. Thorough this movement, this proposition is prepared for methodology and structure of decision makings with legitimacy toward further reinforcement of prevention/mitigation by forming a meta-decision concerning the decision making of those.