年間上位r個を対象にした極値解析による超過確率1,000年規模で設定される想定最大規模降雨の妥当性

抄録

Flood prone area of the Kumano river in the Shingu river system had been made under 937mm/24hr estimated as the probability of exceedance of return period 1,000 years. The precipitation of approximately 2 times was observed in September, 2011 by typhoon 12, and the rainfall without the experience was set so far in this basin. We suggested technique to evaluate the possibility to make occurrence of the precipitation of the probability of exceedance of return period 1,000 years such from a probabilistic point of view. This estimation method was confirmed the validation of the application for the generalized extreme value distribution with sample of the annual r largest order. The prediction distribution and confidence interval for the maximum values of 50 years return period was estimated by the extreme value using an extreme value statistical analysis. It was shown in this paper that the precipitation of the probability of exceedance of return period 1,000 years is included in the confidence interval. We report that the maximum precipitation estimated as the probability of exceedance of return period 1,000 years make possibility to happen practically.