信頼区間・予測区間を導入した水文頻度解析における不確実性評価
キーワード:
probability limit method test,
confidence interval,
prediction interval,
uncertainty evaluation,
hydrological frequency analysis
2019 年 25 巻 p. 13-18
詳細
2019 年 25 巻 p. 13-18
Our previous research proposed hydrological frequency analysis method introducing confidence interval based on probability limit method test. This method can quantify uncertainty of rainfall with design return period and introduce concept of risk evaluation into flood control management. On the other hand, prediction interval expresses the range in which the future observed data can be included. By introducing prediction interval into hydrological frequency analysis, it can be possible to quantify the scale and occurrence risk of future heavy hydrological phenomenon. In this research, prediction interval was constructed by adopting the theory of probability limit method test. Prediction interval based on probability limit method test suggests the feasibility of flood control management corresponding to future heavy hydrological phenomenon. This paper shows the framework of hydrological frequency analysis using confidence interval and prediction interval.
