気候変動を考慮した将来気候下における川幅の推定

抄録

Understanding the effect of climate change on natural disasters is an important social concern to prevent and mitigate the damage of the disasters. We herein focus on the response of channel width of the Pekerebetsu River to changing the discharge characteristics, which might be caused by future climate change. First, current and future water discharge characteristics are evaluated using a massive ensemble climate dataset, d4PDF, and a lumped runoff model. By using the discharge data estimated, we then predict channel width of the river using a discharge - channel amplitude relation, which was obtained from a physics-based river meandering model. The results show that under a future climate condition (more specifically, +4K scenario), the channel width expansion caused by huge flood could be 20% larger than the one of the current climate condition.