抄録
Upon an outbreak of a natural disaster, specially under the circumstances where information of weather, sediment disaster as well as premonition of further disaster frequently changes minute by minute, it is envisaged that decisions on evacuation and evacuation preparation may be made and most probably be influenced by the psychological factors. Therefore, this study is intended to construct a Model for evacuation behaviors upon disasters from psychobehavioral aspects. The suggested model illustrates the evacuation process by four stages, namely 1) confusion, 2) perception, 3) judgment, and 4) action. A certain score is set forth for one perception and the scores shall be accumulated as time passes. Thus, it is assumed if such accumulated scores cross the threshold level, a certain action will be taken. A score given to each influencing parameter differs between disaster and normal circumstances. Scores shall be given to the parameter by chronological analysis under disaster while they shall be added to the parameter under the normal circumstance. The influencing parameters were set forth following the results of earlier studies and the threshold level was considered and decided in conformity with the results of public survey. A public survey was conducted in the form of a questionnaire at three municipalities in Nagano Prefecture where Typhoon No.4(man-yi) & No.9(Fitow) hit devastatingly in 2007 to ascertain applicability of the model that has two threshold levels of evacuation activities and evacuation preparation activities. As the result of analysis, applicability of the model has been improved by considering the regional differences as underlying potentials. Furthermore, the threshold level that covers all the refugees has been established by optimizing scores by quantification methodⅡ. In addition, it is confirmed that direct evacuation alert announcement through public address system of the community is much more effective than warnings of sediment disaster broadcast by TV or Radio.
