抄録
The probability model of the undrained strength of saturated clay which can correctly represent the heterogeneity is indispensable for the reliability-based design of a soft ground. In the present study, the theoretical model specification is firstly shown. The variability of undrained strength is analyzed quantitatively from two points view, which is the new idea of modeling the strength. That is, one aspect is concerned with the variability due to sample disturbance which is inevitable at sampling and testing of soils. The other is the inherent heterogeneity of a natural ground. Speaking of the sample disturbance, the ratio of strength of a disturbed sample to that of a perfect one is formulated by a probabilistic function of the disturbance ratio. On the other hand, the inherent variability of undrained strength is analyzed based on the perturbation of consolidation pressure due to heterogeneity of a ground. The final probability model of measured undrained strength is obtained by convolution of those two kinds of variability.It is secondly showed that all of the theoretical inference obtained from the above stated consideration is supported by statistical model identification of using a large amount of actual data.
