1996 年 62 巻 3 号 p. 291-312,426
While it is true that, since the middle of the Tokugawa Period, Japan has had very limited natural resources, this did not always cause severe problems. On the contrary, almost until the end of the nineteenth century Japan was exporting primary products in exchange for manufactured commodities. Moreover, after the opening of the ports in the middle of the nineteenth century, the improvement in the terms of trade even brought substantial benefits. As industrialization proceeded, Japan became an exporter of light manufactures in exchange for raw materials and food. It was only after 1931, however, when it launched a campaign of military expansion to cure a "presumed" shortage of natural resources that it started to suffer from "real" shortages. Mi1itary expansion caused the rapid expansion of heavy industries. The vast increase in imports of raw materials and fuels needed by such industries and by the military, caused a deterioration in the terms of trade. In addition the shift of the industrial structure from labor-intensive light industries to capital-intensive heavy industries in the l930s induced a fall in real wages and in the standard of living of ordinary people.