An Analysis on Model Mismatch Problem of Multiple Maneuver Model Estimator

Abstract

We evaluate the Multiple Maneuver Model (M³) estimator in the short and long range radar and show the problem of the oscillation on mode probabilities. The overlapping coefficient is also proposed as an indicator to analyze the oscillation problem. The results of a Monte-Carlo simulation show that the quality of mode probabilities degrades when the proposed overlapping coefficient falls below the certain value. These results also indicate the overlapping coefficient is available for detecting the model mismatch. In other words, the model mismatch problem could be avoided in advance by monitoring the overlapping coefficient and setting appropriate parameters.