Abstract
Estimating future population is important process of policy making in managing social infrastructure or urban development, especially in Japan with a declining population. In this research, I described and illustrated the merits of Agent Based Simulation (ABS) method for estimating population and proposed applying the Move-Model to local policy evaluation. The model is based on household's autonomous decision making to move. As a result, this work enabled extensive analysis on how population dynamics will be changed by execution of policy plan.
