Abstract
Since their first publication, A. G. Ivakhnenko and his group have shown the usefulness and applicability of the basic GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) in the construction of most complex models. But those models are often criticized as being based on a vulnerable and insufficient theory. And so the basic GMDH is not made full use of, though this new method has many advantages for the analysis of a complex system.
In this paper we propose GMSM (Group method of Structural Modeling) including the basic GMDH method in it. This is a process which is structured by “Control Matrix” imposing some restrictions on the GMDH calculation, “ISM” (The Interpretive Structural Modeling; this was originated by J. N. Warfield to understand easily total relations among variables of a complex system) and “Man's Judgement” by a theory of a researching object by accumulated experience.
In the following a modeling process by GMSM for “The Business Forecasting of Kyoto City” supported by economic judgement is introduced. In this process, the comparatively short time required and the ingenious and easy combination of calculation and economic judgement show the practicality of GMSM.
