アセアン統合に伴う自動車生産拠点再編を考える

―日系自動車メーカーを中心に―

抄録

This paper aims to analyze the reorganization strategy of the automobile production bases of the Japanese makers as the ASEAN are economically integrating.
At present some ASEAN countries have the international competitiveness of automobile industry; however the other countries do not have it. Therefore if the import tariff ratios of automobiles become zero, some countries will be able to expand the export of automobiles and on the other hand other countries have to accept the import of that and have to close the factories. As a result of that Japanese makers expand production capacity in some countries. On the other hand they are planning to reduce it or close down their factories in other countries. This is a basic direction of the reorganization strategy of the production bases in ASEAN.
Then what is the concrete plan of the reorganization for Japanese auto makers in order to enhance strategically their competitiveness? We will attempt to answer this question by considering four patterns on how they concentrate the production bases and how they allot the production model to each country. And then we assess respectively the competitiveness of four patterns and select the most competitive pattern.
Our conclusions are as follows. In late 2010's, Japanese automakers should take the following reorganization strategy. Firstly they should concentrate the production bases into a few countries that have the international competitiveness. Secondly they should keep the production bases even in the countries that do not have the international competitiveness. In such countries, however, they should concentrate only one model that could be exported to the other countries.
In the late 2020's, they will be able to expand the number of the production models. However they have to allot the production models strategically into each country.