抄録
Every industry is faced with high uncertainty of the social and economic environment. Companies in the social infrastructure industry also adequately deal with such uncertainty. In these surroundings, “Forecast” approach is necessary but no longer sufficient for the new business development, subject creation of research and development and medium and/or long term strategy formulation. This paper indicates that it is important that the companies fully utilize “Foresight” approach for the companies to deal with the uncertainty.
Forecast approach adopts the following methods that using the definite elements and the quantitative datasets. One set of prior conditions draws one certain conclusion on this approach. This is suitable under the stable-growth period or in the stable industries.
“Foresight” approach focuses, meanwhile, on the uncertain materials and qualitative elements for developing businesses and strategies. Such materials and elements list users’ sense of values, societal changes and some other impacts in the future.
This paper provides two examples in order to show the efficacy of “Foresight” approach. First example is the current situation and new business model of the water industry in India. Second one is the actual practices of the approach from some Japanese infrastructure companies. A telecom company, a power company and some governmental organizations have adopted the “Foresight” approach. In addition, other many private companies plan to adopt the approach.
The high uncertainty of the social and economic environment requires companies in the social infrastructure industry to develop the new businesses and business models with the assistance of “Foresight” approach in order to know the changes of consumers’ and customers’behaviors.
