Projection of Climatic Change over Japan Due to Global Warming by High-Resolution Regional Climate Model in MRI

抄録

The Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) projected climate change over Japan due to global warming using a high-resolution Regional Climate Model of 20 km mesh size (RCM20) developed in MRI. Projection was made for 2081 to 2100 following a SRES-A2 scenario.
Precipitation projected by RCM20 indicated that increased daily precipitation will be seen during the warm season from June to September. Except for this period, the precipitation amount will not change much or will slightly decrease around Japan. The increase during the warm season will be seen only in the western part of Japan. A possible cause of the increase is an El Niño-like SST pattern in the future. Due to the future increased summer SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific, anti-cyclonic circulation to the south of Japan will intensify and will induce a strong water vapor flux along the rim of the anti-cyclonic anomaly. The intensified flux will converge over the western part of Japan and may increase precipitation.
Surface air temperature is projected to increase more than 2°C around Japan in January. In summer, the temperature increase will be lower by about 1°C than in winter.