A Simple Snow-Cover Model for Avalanche Warning in Japan

抄録

This paper describes a simple snow-cover model (SSCM) that was developed primarily to evaluate the hazard to traffic posed by snow avalanches. The SSCM requires only air temperature and precipitation or snow depth as input data, and we simplified the physical processes that affect the snowpack in the model. Snow pit observations and the calculation for avalanche cases were carried out to verify the SSCM output. The SSCM was able to reproduce the change in the snowpack properties fairly well. Further, the snow stability index, which shows the ratio of shear strength to shear stress in the snow, indicated that the SSCM can be used to provide a reliable estimate of avalanche hazard.