Observation System Simulation Experiments of Water Vapor Profiles Observed by Raman Lidar using LETKF System

抄録

We conducted observation system simulation experiments (OSSE) to investigate the effects of water vapor vertical profiles observed by Raman lidar (RL) on forecasts of heavy precipitation in Hiroshima, Japan, on August 19, 2014 using a local ensemble transform Kalman filter. We employed a simulation result similar to reality as nature-run (NR) and performed two OSSEs. In the first experiment (DaQv), conventional observation data and vertical profiles of water vapor mixing ratio in air (q_v) estimated from NR were assimilated. In the second experiment (CNTL), only conventional observation data were assimilated. In DaQv, we assumed that the RL was in the low-level inflow that supplied water vapor to the heavy precipitation in Hiroshima. Assimilating q_v for several hours increased q_v around the RL observation station, especially at low level. The regions modified by the assimilation of q_v moved to Hiroshima by low-level inflow, resulting in 9-hour precipitation being approximately 28% greater than that of CNTL, and was thus closer to that of the NR. The OSSEs suggest that water vapor RL observations on the windward side of the heavy precipitation are a useful approach for improving precipitation forecasts.