A tropical cyclone initialization in multi-scale localization with hybrid four dimensional ensemble-variational system: Preliminary results

抄録

One way of the tropical cyclone (TC) initialization is assimilating the official advisory sea-level pressure observation to specify the initial structures of a TC with the aid of a background error covariance (BEC). In the hybrid four dimensional ensemble- variational data assimilation system, a static BEC explains the geostrophic and cyclostrophic wind-mass balance, and an ensemble BEC expresses the flow-dependent feature. Assimilation of the minimum sea-level pressure using a larger localization length-scale with limited ensemble members yields the closest to the observations at the initial state, but an imbalance in the broad analysis increment distorts geopotential and wind fields. Moreover, the reduced central pressure of TC is rapidly returned to an intensity that a model resolution can represent during the prediction. We introduce the application of final-scale localization (FSL) at the last outer loop with the shortest one to improve the TC initialization. With the aid of FSL, we may conduct the shorter localization length-scale, especially adopted for the TC initialization. As preliminary results, both analysis and prediction become more stable and the large-scale environments are preserved better than in the control experiment.