Trend Analysis of Unemployment Risk

Effects of the Expansion of Non-standard Jobs and Change of Determinants

Abstract

　How did the unemployment risk in the labor market change after the collapse of the bubble economy, while both globalization and the economic slump progressed? In this paper we answer this question by analyzing the determinants of unemployment risk. Unemployment is defined as an employee’s involuntary job-shift for reasons such as bankruptcy, business closure, and dismissal.　This paper focuses on two topics: the effect of the expansion of non-standard jobs,and the change of determinants. First, we examine whether the rise of unemployment risk after the collapse of the bubble economy was influenced by the expansion of non-standard jobs. Second, we investigate the changes in the determinants of unemployment risk such as the position in the labor market, education, and occupation. Concretely, this paper verifies three hypotheses: universalization of risk, stratification of risk, and stability of the determinants.　We analyze the determinants of unemployment risk by using the data of Social Stratification and Social Mobility (SSM) (2005). The results are the following. First, concerning the rise of unemployment risk after the collapse of the bubble economy, the direct effect of the period was strong, but the mediation effect of the expansion of non-standard jobs was weak. Second, though the unemployment risk increased after the collapse of the bubble economy, there was no change in the tendency that employees in small firms and in non-standard jobs are exposed to unemployment risk.