日本リスク研究学会誌
Online ISSN : 2185-4548
Print ISSN : 0915-5465
ISSN-L : 0915-5465
原著論文
シナリオ型地震動予測による建物被害と死亡リスクの推定
恒見 清孝川本 朱美
著者情報
ジャーナル フリー

2013 年 23 巻 4 号 p. 249-256

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抄録
In this study, we simulated the volume of severely-damaged buildings and deaths in Aichi and Chiba prefecture caused by large-scale earthquakes. We also tried to quantify the seismic risk in these prefectures using the parameters of hazard, exposure and vulnerability for interregional comparison in order to prioritize disaster prevention countermeasures. As the result, we could calculate individual risk of those in 50 years by 1km mesh areas using scenario-based prediction of ground motion. The risks caused by major subduction-zone earthquakes are larger than those caused by major active fault zone earthquakes because of the high probability of the former earthquakes. Furthermore, the damage and risk in Aichi prefecture are higher than those in Chiba prefecture, and the risk of death living in wooden buildings is from 10-5 to 10-3.
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© 2013 一般社団法人日本リスク研究学会
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