風評被害による経済波及影響の分析
—— 北海道産カキをケーススタディとして ——

抄録

The diet and advancement of fishing villages are supported by the production and distribution of fishery products, so the control of quality and hygiene for these products is very important. In docking areas, infrastructures and countermeasures for quality and hygiene control such as traceability systems have been established by governments and regional HACCP. However, food poisoning incidents caused by fishery products and rumors of food poisioning have brought serious economic damages to the industry and consumers. Countermeasures are needed to reduce the losses.
In order to confront those conditions, the following four topics were investigated and the results are reported in this paper: (1) Analysis of economic damages caused by shellfish poisoning accidents and rumors—Case study of oysters in Akkeshi town, Hokkaido; (2) Development of scenarios for the economic damages from the accidents and the rumors; (3) Expectations of the direct economic impacts, and spread of economic impacts on the gross domestic products and analysis of damages and losses to both docking and consuming areas; (4) Consideration of the issues and ways to analyze, evaluate and control the risks in quality and hygiene of fishery products.
The results of this paper are as follows.
(1) By the shellfish poison accidents occurred in Akkeshi town in April, 2005, the economic impacts such as the direct expense for recall and disposal of oysters continued for one month, and the loss of crops and the decrease in shipping also continued for one month. Equally, by the rumor in December, 2006, the three month decrease in shipping oysters was reported.; (2) Three scenarios were supposed. The first scenario is based on the accident in April, 2005, and the second one is based on the rumor in December, 2006. The last one is the most serious scenario.; (3) The direct economic impacts caused by each scenario were estimated. The economic spreading impact and the gross domestic product were calculated by the I-O table. In the most serious scenario, the amount of the direct economic impact and economic spreading impact was 27 hundred million yen in Hokkaido and 14 hundred million yen in the whole of Japan except Hokkaido. The decrease of the gross domestic product was 12 hundred million yen in Hokkaido and 5 hundred million yen in the whole of Japan except Hokkaido.; (4) The economic spreading impacts in region and the outside of it were proved. And, in order to reduce the impacts toward both landing and consuming areas, important things are the strict control in the quality and hygiene of fishery products, the provision of the correct knowledge, and the risk management for the accidents.
JEL Classification: R15