郊外住宅団地の持続可能性と環境要因に関する実証的分析

—— 広島市の郊外住宅地を対象として ——

抄録

In face of a falling birthrate, aging and population decreases in Japan, the priority for new housing development in the suburbs becomes lower and it has become more important to sustain suburban communities. The aim of this paper is to analyze the trends of aging structure in the suburban community, and clarify the factors for the population change, and examine the factors that make the suburban community sustainable. Especially, the relationship between the aging structure and population change is statistically examined and the tendency of household formation in the suburban communities of Hiroshima City clarified. The stability of age structure and population size in each community is analyzed to examine its sustainability. The relation of indices that show the characteristics of the location such as accessibility to the city and vertical interval, and changes in the population structure of the housing estates are analyzed, and the sustainability of each housing estate examined by location.
The major results are summarized as follows: 1) suburban communities where household formation is steady are characterized with a high ratio of owner-occupied houses and location close to the commercial areas, whereas 2) suburban communities with insufficient sustainability where the population is decreasing and aging are located at a place convenient to the city center. Therefore, a comparison between the changes in the population composition and the factors in each housing estate, and a renewal plan for houses in each individual area can be examined in order to sustain suburban communities.

JEL Classification: R20