確率的景気指標による長崎地域経済の研究 : 長崎経済の定型化された事実の検証

抄録

Current regional studies in business indicators focus mainly on the estimation of an indicator itself to reveal regional business cycle, and at best, comparison with a national indicator or those of nearby regions. This paper employs a business indicator from a different point of view to verify some stylized facts of regional economy with statistical methodologies. The paper at first estimates a stochastic regional business indicator of Stock-Watson type in Nagasaki based on existing methodology, and has succeeded in estimation. This indicator is not utilized only to reveal business cycle but also to verify some stylized facts in the region, such as weak recession in 2001 that Nagasaki Tankan unveils, and moreover, whether shipbuilding and sightseeing industries lead Nagasaki economy or not, employing Granger causality analysis.
For estimating a regional business indicator in Nagasaki, this paper employs the large industrial power consumption as a proxy for the production; the effective job offer rate for the labor condition; the sales value at department stores deflated by the consumer price index to volume for the consumption; and, the index of real wage for the income. These proxies are represented in a state space model for estimating the only and latent business indicator, which is named Nagasaki Regional Business Indicator (NRBI) in the paper. The state space model has been solved by the Kalman filter to obtain NRBI.
NRBI indicates very clear business cycle in Nagasaki compared with all-Japan business cycle indicator which is calculated by the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan and named Composite Index (CI). NRBI reveals declining tendency and very weak recession in 2001, which strongly supports results of Nagasaki Tankan. Moreover, utilizing NRBI to unveil Nagasaki business cycle, Granger causality analysis is adopted among NRBI, CI, order backlog of the shipbuilding industry and the number of visitors to Glover Garden that is a proxy for sightseeing. The results suggest that all-Japan CI proceeds NRBI and also that the shipbuilding industry leads Nagasaki regional business at one percent level of the statistical significance, while the relationship between the number of Glover Garden visitors and NRBI is ambiguous.
After estimating NRBI and analyzing Nagasaki economy, the paper concludes briefly and points out three issues remaining. The first is what exists on the background for the Nagasaki's weak recession in 2001. It might be required to take another approach including episode analysis. From a viewpoint of business cycle, the second should be the estimation based on more advanced methodology. The third is to explore another way to utilize NRBI. Finally, the paper stresses widening utilization of regional business indicators, which may promote development of indicator estimation.

JEL Classification: C32, C43, E32, R10, R11, R15