途上国におけるエネルギー価格制度改革の有効性

── 中国の窯業土石産業に関する実証分析 ──

抄録

Energy prices are highly subsidized, especially in developing countries, and this is why domestic energy prices in developing countries are much lower than in developed countries.　Low energy costs can be a negative incentive for energy conservation, so energy subsidy reforms in developing nations are extensively discussed by the international community from the viewpoints of climate change and energy security.

In 2010, IEA, OPEC, OECD and World Bank proposed the joint paper, “Analysis of the scope of energy subsidies and suggestions for the G-20 Initiative”.　In that paper, impacts of energy price reform in developing countries on energy savings are discussed.　Energy price reform highly impacts dependence on demand responsiveness to price change.

Although a large body of research on this topic already exists, the empirical results have a wide range in estimated parameter values.　There is no consensus on energy demand responsiveness to price change, especially for developing countries.　This is mainly caused by two methodological problems, “Asymmetry of demand responsiveness to price change” and “Non-linear underlying energy demand trends”.　Hoshino ［9］ addressed these problems and estimated the more robust parameter of energy demand responsiveness to price changes in the ceramic industry in several countries, including China.

In this study, we investigated the impacts of price reform on energy demands in developing countries.　First, we analyzed the impacts of energy price reform on energy demands in the ceramic industries of China, India, Thailand and Indonesia using the estimated parameter of Hoshino ［9］.　Our results showed that an increase in the average price of energy is effective for energy saving.　If the average price of energy rises to the same level as middle-growth countries, the energy demands of Indonesia, India and China decrease by 30 percent, 20 percent and 5 percent, respectively.　Second, we found that an increase in coal prices induces fuel switching from coal to natural gas and helps mitigate environmental problems caused by the heavy use of coal in China.

JEL Classifications:C13, Q48, O53