2020 Volume 50 Issue 2 Pages 371-390
This paper aims to develop an economic and fiscal macro-econometric model for Mie Prefecture and quantitatively analyze the results to apply to structural analysis, forecasting, simulations and policy evaluations.
In particular, I consider the following questions:
（1） Will the regional economy grow as the population decreases ?
（2） What will happen to supply and demand in the labor market ?
（a） Will the labor force become insufficient with a declining population ?
（b） Will the economic decline cause a decrease in labor demand and a lack of employment opportunities ?
The purpose of this study was to quantitatively analyze the regional goods market and labor market, and use this information for middle to long-term regional planning. Therefore, I built a demand-supply-adjustment-type regional macro-econometric model that has the accuracy to withstand long-term forecasts. In addition, the model has a structure in which the labor market is divided into regular and non-regular sectors （labor, working hours and wages）.
The results of the prediction simulation based on the “Mie Prefecture Macro-econometric Model” developed in this study are summarized as follows:“The average growth rate of nominal GRP （regional GDP） was 0.5% （in the years 2016 to 2040）, while the real GRP was 0.3%, and the economy of Mie Prefecture grew slightly in a population declining society.”
The economy of Mie Prefecture is characterized by a very high dependence on trade. After the second world war, petrochemical products, automobiles, liquid crystal panels, and semiconductors continue to take leading roles.
In the future, policies of Mie Prefecture should promote high value-added existing industries and attract high value-added industries, thereby accumulating internationally competitive industries in the prefecture. At the same time, the prefecture should develop specialized and technical human resources to support such industries, and establish a mechanism for people settle down in the prefecture.
JEL Classifications:C30, J31, R15
