2022 年 52 巻 1 号 p. 61-79
In this study, we proposed a method for estimating the amount of disaster waste generated by applying a method for predicting future changes in building stock in the field of construction to the field of disaster waste, for which future estimates have not yet been made, and estimated the amount of disaster waste generated after creating the basic unit based on the method. The amounts of disaster waste generated were based on this method. In addition, we used general statistical data, such as a summary report of the price of fixed assets. This study provides basic knowledge for future estimations to support the local governments that are facing problems of insufficient personnel and knowledge.
The coefficients of determination prepared for the future estimation of total floor space showed high values in most of the municipalities, and a correlation was generally confirmed. In addition, most of the municipalities showed an increasing trend in unit requirements for the future. In addition, the estimated amount of existing building stock may continue to decrease in the future under all population scenarios. The amount of disaster waste generated was larger in the scenario with a smaller population decrease, and the rate of change in the amount of disaster waste generated was larger in the scenario with a larger population decrease. The municipalities in the target area where the rate of change in the amount of disaster waste generated was larger were located near the central area. Therefore, when considering the management of disaster waste in rural prefectures such as Wakayama Prefecture, it is necessary to pay special attention to the municipalities around the prefectural capitals where the population is concentrated.
JEL Classifications:O18, Q54
