2023 年 53 巻 2 号 p. 173-184
Japan’s agricultural policies focus on enhancing exports and domestic production through removal of non-tariff barriers （NTB）. However, few studies have quantitatively evaluated such effects. This study aims to clarify the effect of removing NTB on trade and domestic production in agriculture and food sectors with Southeast Asian countries using a global CGE model and ad valorem equivalent rates （World Bank, 2019）. Based on the simulation results, we show policy implications for the future export promotion of Japan’s agriculture and food products. The characteristics of the analysis are as follows:（1） we focus on Southeast Asian countries, where many Japanese companies are located with relatively little political friction and much room for the spread of Japanese cuisine exists;（2） targeting non-technical factors of NTB other than food quarantine and sanitary inspection, we compare and analyze the effects of the elimination of tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and （3） we conduct a comparative static analysis to compare the effects of trade policy for 2030.
The analytical results revealed, first, removal of NTB （non-technical factors other than food quarantine and sanitary inspection） from Southeast Asian countries increased exports of Japanese agriculture and food products by 22 billion yen. Second, although the export-enhancing effect was almost the same whether removing NTB only in the partner country or in both Japan and the partner, but the domestic production in the latter case was only 2/3 of the former. Third, if both tariffs and NTB were eliminated, exports doubled, but imports increased more than exports. The export-enhancing effect of removing NTB （non-technical factors） was 36.1% of that by tariffs. Fourth, in addition to the direct effect on Japan export-enhancing with the partner where NTB was removed, there was a negative substitution-effect in which exports countries switched to partner countries from other countries. Based on the above results, several policy and academic implications are discussed.
JEL Classifications:F17, Q17, Q18, R15
