建築ストック・フローに着目した災害廃棄物発生量の将来推計手法の提案

抄録

　　This study proposed a new disaster waste prediction model that accounts for future building stock and flow and verified its effectiveness.　Based on the waste quantity estimates obtained using the model, we conducted a comparative analysis with previous studies.　As a result, significant differences were observed in the following two points.　First, in the estimating building stock quantities, the estimates in this study tended to be higher than those in previous studies.　Second, in estimating disaster waste generation quantities, the estimated values in this study were lower than those in previous studies.　These differences are believed to primarily stem from variations in data selection and modeling approaches.　This model also highlighted the challenge of directly reflecting population decline, suggesting that improving prediction accuracy requires combining population dynamics with building stock analysis.　Furthermore, this study clarifies that the estimation represents a baseline scenario that does not incorporate recent policy trends, such as vacant house countermeasures, thereby highlighting the model’s essential preconditions and limitations.

JEL Classification:O18, Q54