トップダウン連結による小地域分割手法の検討

自動車交通量対策の影響把握のための東京都12地域分割モデル

抄録

This research is part of an on-going project of the econometric analysis about the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA: Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba prefectures). The main purpose of the project has been to make several effective plans to eliminate NOx exhausted from automobiles in TMA, especially in Tokyo Metropolis (prefecture).
In the last conference of the Japan section of RSAI, we reported empirical studies of four-regions model of TMA (TMA model). However, as NOx concentrates in only small parts of the Tokyo prefecture and pollution occurs in such areas, we need to construct another model for Tokyo prefecture. This research is a trial of Top-down projection by the multi-regional linkage model.
Tokyo prefecture which consists of 23 wards, 26 cities, 6 towns and islands is divided into twelve districts excluding islands. This model is composed of five blocks (demographic variables, employment, production, income and finance) and 167 equations which are estimated by OLS. The observation period is 13 fiscal years from 1976 to 1988.
We applied this model to analyze the effects of various impacts and changes in trends of five blocks by running simulations, and comparing them with the results of the standard type simulation or final test. And two cases of historical simulations under the same conditions as TMA model are reported in this research. In these cases, the results of the TMA model were used as the control total (that is, Top-down linkage projection).