システム・ダイナミックスによる地域開発モデルのコンピュータ・シミュレーション

むつ小川原地域の場合

抄録

This study was done to dynamically estimate the social and economic movements in the area, which would be much influenced by the results of industrial development of the area.
We have considered the area as one social system, as it is essentially made up of human beings. We have adopted the System Dynamics (SD) method to more easily investigate the dynamic behaviour of the social system which contain within itself so called non linearlity and other characteristics that the conventional method would hardly handle. SD is a system analysis method developed by Professor J. W. Forrester and his group at MIT. This method is recently attracting much attention.
Following are two major study points of SD adoption:
1) Basic close exmianation as a regional analysis method
2) To investigate dynamic behaviour problems of the large-scale industrial development of Mutsu-Ogawara area (see Figure 1) in Aomori Prefecture
For the purpose of (2), we have made up model (Model I) illustrated by the flow-diagram of Figure 3, after doing a number of computer simulations. Figure 4 is one of these results. As for (1), we are confident of the usability of SD through these experiential works, but more objective and clearer investigation must be carried over to the future.
These studies of ours are still continuing. Here, we could only reprot the results of our works at the first stage. At present, we are working to analyse the work of “Model II”, which is an improved and extended type of Mdoel I, about whose results we would like to bring out in the near future.