This paper describes a method of estimating source term, i.e., location, period and amount of atmospheric release of radioactive material in real-time during nuclear emergency. This method consists of: (1) trial simulations of atmospheric dispersions on the possible combinations of these parameters and (2) statistical comparison of model predictions with offsite measurements of air concentrations of radionuclides and/or air dose rates from monitoring stations, to find a set of release condition providing model prediction that fits best to the measurement. A parallel execution method for efficiently processing many possible initial conditions is also developed. The performance of this method is favorably evaluated by a verification study using the dataset from European Tracer Experiment.
by the Atomic Energy Society of Japan