抄録
Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure integrated with GIS, an infinite slope stability model and a Monte Calro simulation approach is proposed, and applied to a landslide prone area of Sasebo city, western Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. The effects of grid size to calculate slope angle and slope aspect from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the stream network identified in the area, the thickness distribution of colluvium above Tertiary strata is calculated with good preciseness. Finally, by integrating an infinite slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS and applying the spatial operation, two slope failure probability distribution maps are obtained for the cases of both low and high water levels.
