At-Home Deaths and Regional Factors in Japan

Abstract

In Japan, at-home deaths are not always popular, yet many people hope to spend their end-of-life at home, which makes this a socio-medical issue. Regional factors are associated with at-home deaths, but their relative importance has not been known. The present study investigated the relationship between at-home deaths and regional factors and ranked their importance at the municipal level in Japan. We used national open data on at-home deaths, population, medical resources, causes of death, economic factors and geographic factors as well as built the prediction model for at-home deaths using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) value was applied to rank the importance of regional factors and explain the XGBoost model. As a result, the median prevalence of at-home deaths across municipalities was 12.7%. A higher prevalence of at-home deaths was observed in large metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya. SHAP values revealed that latitude was the most important factor in rank, followed by the number of clinics providing end-of-life care, longitude, population density, and population change rate. In conclusion, geographic and population-related factors were ranked highly among regional factors associated with at-home deaths. These findings may be informative for community planning to realize at-home deaths nationwide.