Abstract
In Japan, a normal lease contract under tenant protection law does not permit an owner to terminate the contract against the
lessee’s will. If the owner really wants to terminate the contract, compensation must be paid for eviction, which can be a lot of
money in reality. Thus, it is sometimes advantageous for the owner to leave a rental house vacant if there are plans to convert
or sell the property at a certain point in the fu旬re.We develop a theoretical model that shows the relationship between the
duration of vacancy and the owner’s belief concerning the cost of tenant removal and the expected rent. We then estimate the
expected vacant period for each property. We also calculate the total opportunity cost for the vacant properties in Tokyo 23
special wards.
