Risk factors analysis and nomogram construction of non-survivors in critical patients with COVID-19

抄録

A pandemic named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbroke in China since December 2019. This disease has caused more than 70000 deaths worldwide. We intend to analyze the risk factors of death and establish a prognosis nomogram for critical patients with COVID-19. We analyzed the clinical data of COVID-19 patients in Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University who were critical cases with COVID-19 before March 20, 2020. Data were collected at admission and compared between survivors and non-survivors and analyzed by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Finally, 104 patients were included, and 50 of whom died. Age [ OR 5.73 (95% CI, 1.14-28.81)], chest tightness [OR 5.50 (95%CI, 1.02-29.64)], AST [OR 6.57 (95%CI, 1.33-32.48)]and BUN [5.59 (95%CI, 1.05-29.74)] at admission were considered to predict the risk of death in critical patients and were selected to construct the nomogram. Subsequently, we established a nomogram model and validated it. The sensitivity and specificity of the nomogram were 96.0% and 74.1%, respectively. The AUC was 0.893 (95% CI, 0.807-0.980).