南海トラフ巨大地震

─その破壊の様態とシリーズについての新たな考え─

抄録

Great earthquakes have historically occurred along the Nankai Trough. It has been said that they ruptured part or whole of characteristic fault planes A, B, C, D, and E repeatedly. However, there are a number of enigmas for their occurrence. Major ones are as follows. The 1944 Showa-Tonankai earthquake occurred only 90 years after the 1854 Ansei earthquakes. The 90-year period seems short compared with other time intervals of the historical earthquakes. The Tonankai earthquake did not rupture fault plane E west of the Suruga Trough, by some unknown reasons. The Tokai earthquake anticipated at fault plane E has not occurred yet since the Ansei-Tokai event even if a slow slip event occurred recently near the downdip end of its rupture zone. In this study, I propose a model to solve these enigmas. I characterize a fault plane of a great earthquake into a seismic-b.eq, a tsunami-b.eq, and a geodetic-b.eq, in which seismic waves, tsunamis, and crustal deformations are dominantly generated, respectively. I compare these different bands of rupture zones between the 1944 Showa-Tonankai and 1854 Ansei-Tokai earthquakes, the 1946 Showa-Nankai and 1854 Ansei-Nankai earthquakes, and the 1707 Hoei and other earthquakes, using seismic intensity data and previous studies on asperities, tsunamis, and crustal deformations. It is found that the Ansei-Tokai and Showa-Tonankai earthquakes scarcely shared their seismic-b.eqs. The tsunami- and geodetic-b.eqs of the Ansei-Tokai earthquake extended to the west of its seismic-b.eq, and was shared by, but did not cover the seismic-, tsunami- and geodetic-b.eqs of the Showa-Tonankai earthquake. It cannot thus be said that the Ansei-Tokai earthquake ruptured fault planes C+D+E or that fault plane E was left unbroken after the Showa-Tonankai earthquake. The occurrence of these two earthquakes is rather complementary from a viewpoint of the seismic-b.eq. The seismic-b.eq of the Ansei-Nankai earthquake also seems to have been different from and was located further north than that of the Showa-Nankai earthquake. On the other hand, the Hoei earthquake had a seismic-b.eq similar to those of the Showa earthquakes. I group historical great earthquakes into the Ansei-type or the Hoei-type, which has a seismic-b.eq similar to either of the Ansei or Hoei earthquake. It is likely that the Ansei-type earthquakes are the 684 Hakuho, 1096 Eicho-1099 Kowa, 1498 Meio, and 1854 Ansei earthquakes and recurred with a ∼400-year period, and that the Hoei-type earthquakes are the 887 Ninna, 1361 Shohei, 1707 Hoei, and 1944 Tonankai-1946 Nankai earthquakes and recurred with a ∼350-year period. Since the Showa-Tonankai earthquake was complementary to the Ansei-Tokai earthquake, the 90-year period between the two events is not a recurrence time and it is natural that the Showa-Tonankai did not rupture fault plane E. It is also natural that the next Tokai earthquake did not occur even if the slow slip event occurred at its downdip end, because it is expected to occur at least ∼200 years after present, because the earthquake precedent the Ansei-Tokai event would be the 1498 Meio earthquake.