We extracted unsteady vertical crustal deformations in the Shikoku region before GPS deployment using leveling and sea-level data. GPS-derived, steady-state vertical displacements related to ongoing subduction of the Philippine Sea plate were subtracted from the vertical displacements observed by leveling surveys. Monthly mean sea-level data were corrected for atmospheric pressure and hydrographic effects. As a result, we found an upheaval of 4-5cm near Kochi City from 1977 to 1980 in both the leveling and sea-level data. This may represent a crustal deformation caused by a long-term slow slip event on the plate boundary.

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A double-planed shallow seismic zone has been found in the northeastern Japan forearc region. However, the characterizations of the focal mechanisms of earthquakes in this zone, especially the lower plane events, cannot be carried out adequately due to low seismicity and poor station coverage on the focal sphere of the onshore P-wave polarity data. In this study, we determine the focal depth using the sP depth phase and the focal mechanisms using the P-wave initial motions observed by the ocean bottom cabled seismic stations and temporary autonomous ocean bottom seismic networks off Miyagi, as well as the onshore seismic networks. Seven focal mechanism solutions of events were precisely determined. Using the classification based on the dip angles of the T, B and P axes, we classified 21 weakly constrained focal mechanisms of other events having poor station coverage. All the determined solutions were of the thrust-faulting type regardless of the focal depth. The offshore observations helped considerably in constraining the focal mechanisms of these far-offshore earthquakes, especially their rake angles. Although previous studies had reported that the focal mechanisms of the upper and lower plane events show predominantly normal and reverse faulting respectively, our result showed that the thrust events in the upper plane seem to occur on the plate boundary. We found that the focal mechanisms change from normal faulting in the upper plane to reverse faulting in the lower plane at a depth of 15km from the plate boundary, possibly defining the depth of the neutral plane in the northeastern Japan forearc region included in the source area of the 1933 M_w8.4 Sanriku earthquake. The western edge of the normal faulting events along the upper plane is located about 70km inward from the trench axis. These results suggest that the earthquake-generating stress field in the double-planed shallow and deep seismic zone in the northeastern Japan arc can be explained by the bending-unbending model of the subducting Pacific plate.

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In inversion analyses using ABIC, a non-full rank matrix for prior constraints is allowed in the formulation of Yabuki and Matsu'ura (1992), while Fukuda and Johnson (2008) claimed that the matrix must be full rank. This problem depends on consideration about the value of “zero” of zero eigenvalues contained in the prior constraint matrix. In actual inversion analyses, we must have some prior information about model parameters, even if it is not explicitly expressed. Therefore, the “zero” of the zero eigenvalues is considered to be not zero exactly. Based on this consideration, we can obtain the same inversion solution as Yabuki and Matsu'ura (1992). Mathematical difficulty in expressing the prior probability density function for a matrix with zero eigenvalues can be avoided by the use of non-informative prior.

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Great earthquakes have historically occurred along the Nankai Trough. It has been said that they ruptured part or whole of characteristic fault planes A, B, C, D, and E repeatedly. However, there are a number of enigmas for their occurrence. Major ones are as follows. The 1944 Showa-Tonankai earthquake occurred only 90 years after the 1854 Ansei earthquakes. The 90-year period seems short compared with other time intervals of the historical earthquakes. The Tonankai earthquake did not rupture fault plane E west of the Suruga Trough, by some unknown reasons. The Tokai earthquake anticipated at fault plane E has not occurred yet since the Ansei-Tokai event even if a slow slip event occurred recently near the downdip end of its rupture zone. In this study, I propose a model to solve these enigmas. I characterize a fault plane of a great earthquake into a seismic-b.eq, a tsunami-b.eq, and a geodetic-b.eq, in which seismic waves, tsunamis, and crustal deformations are dominantly generated, respectively. I compare these different bands of rupture zones between the 1944 Showa-Tonankai and 1854 Ansei-Tokai earthquakes, the 1946 Showa-Nankai and 1854 Ansei-Nankai earthquakes, and the 1707 Hoei and other earthquakes, using seismic intensity data and previous studies on asperities, tsunamis, and crustal deformations. It is found that the Ansei-Tokai and Showa-Tonankai earthquakes scarcely shared their seismic-b.eqs. The tsunami- and geodetic-b.eqs of the Ansei-Tokai earthquake extended to the west of its seismic-b.eq, and was shared by, but did not cover the seismic-, tsunami- and geodetic-b.eqs of the Showa-Tonankai earthquake. It cannot thus be said that the Ansei-Tokai earthquake ruptured fault planes C+D+E or that fault plane E was left unbroken after the Showa-Tonankai earthquake. The occurrence of these two earthquakes is rather complementary from a viewpoint of the seismic-b.eq. The seismic-b.eq of the Ansei-Nankai earthquake also seems to have been different from and was located further north than that of the Showa-Nankai earthquake. On the other hand, the Hoei earthquake had a seismic-b.eq similar to those of the Showa earthquakes. I group historical great earthquakes into the Ansei-type or the Hoei-type, which has a seismic-b.eq similar to either of the Ansei or Hoei earthquake. It is likely that the Ansei-type earthquakes are the 684 Hakuho, 1096 Eicho-1099 Kowa, 1498 Meio, and 1854 Ansei earthquakes and recurred with a ∼400-year period, and that the Hoei-type earthquakes are the 887 Ninna, 1361 Shohei, 1707 Hoei, and 1944 Tonankai-1946 Nankai earthquakes and recurred with a ∼350-year period. Since the Showa-Tonankai earthquake was complementary to the Ansei-Tokai earthquake, the 90-year period between the two events is not a recurrence time and it is natural that the Showa-Tonankai did not rupture fault plane E. It is also natural that the next Tokai earthquake did not occur even if the slow slip event occurred at its downdip end, because it is expected to occur at least ∼200 years after present, because the earthquake precedent the Ansei-Tokai event would be the 1498 Meio earthquake.

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