Trajectory-based operations (TBO) includes the prediction of air traffic demand to allow the planning of measures to balance demand and capacity. Long-term airport traffic demand forecasting and monitoring is a part of this. Ideally, forecasting should use a full set of historical data as a baseline, but such data are not always available. This report presents a simple method to forecast annual airport traffic demand and daily traffic flux from limited historical flight data and an existing air traffic growth forecast model. The historical flight data comprises air traffic samples (scenarios) for one or more representative days in a baseline year that include departure and arrival times and origin and destination airport. To these we apply a model of traffic growth factors to generate forecast traffic demand scenarios for a target year, adding growth traffic to the baseline using a random ‘copyand-shift’ process to preserve the daily time-varying characteristics of traffic flows. Annual airport movements and hourly traffic flux are then estimated from the traffic demand scenarios. We demonstrate the method by applying it traffic scenarios for 2013 to forecast airport demand at the eight busiest airports in the Fukuoka Flight Information Region (FIR) for the year 2030. We also show a correction for visual flight rules (VFR) traffic data that was ‘missing’ from our original baseline data.

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Continuity is an index to describe and measure the performance of the satellite navigation system as well as position accuracy. In order to evaluate continuity, a possible way is computing MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) thru dividing the total operation time by the number of failure events. However, especially in case of satellite navigation, the number of failure events is quite small to estimate reliable value of continuity unless observation period is set to unrealistic length. This technical report gives a practical method to estimate lower and upper limits of continuity for a given level of reliability.

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Continuous descent operations (CDO) is an efficient aircraft descent procedure that results in minimal fuel consumption because aircraft descend from their optimal top of descent (TOD) at idle engine thrust. So, it is desirable for all descending aircraft to follow CDO from the viewpoints of efficient aircraft operations and reduced environmental impact. Currently in Japan, CDO are implemented at three airports, but its operations are limited to time frames with low traffic volumes due to the difficulties air traffic control (ATC) experience in maintain required separation between aircraft during higher traffic situations especially at large-scale airports. The object of this study is to expand the implementation of CDO and increase the number of successful CDO at large-scale airports. First, we assumed the three underlying issues: uncertainty of predicted trajectories, capability of maintain separation minima, and controller workload. In order to deal with these issues, the following measures were conducted in this study. To address the uncertainty of predicted trajectories, we developed a trajectory generation algorithm with highly accurate trajectory prediction technology. In order to maintain the separation minima and for controller workload, we developed a CDO decision support tools for air traffic controllers.　In the development of trajectory generation algorithm, the CDO descent trajectory was generated by numerical calculations using EUROCONTROL’s Base of Aircraft Data (BADA), and the validity of the model was confirmed by　comparing it with a series of full flight simulator experiment data. We also considered constrained-CDO named as Fixed-FPA (Flight-path Angle) descent during which an aircraft descends continuously at a constant flight path angle. Results　indicated that the fixed-FPA descent with speed control capability consumed less fuel compared to cancelled CDO.　To validate the CDO decision support tool, a series of human-in-the-loop simulation experiments were implemented　targeting the Kansai International Airport, which is the airport with highest number of CDO implementations in Japan.One of the results indicated the effectiveness of early speed adjustment during descent phase for maintain safety separation　between CDO arrival aircraft. Experiments revealed that the effective number of arrival aircraft for such speed adjustment　were three arrivals within a 10-minute time frame and seven arrivals in a 30-minute time frame.

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AeroMACS (Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System) is one of the next-generation aeronautical communication standards aimed at aircraft on the airport surface. The advantages of AeroMACS, namely high-speed and large-capacity communication, will enable the TBO (Trajectory Based Operation) concept to be achieved in the future, which will realize safer and more efficient aircraft operation. In our previous research, the basic functions of AeroMACS were confirmed with developed prototypes of an AeroMACS transceiver. This study aims to enhance the AeroMACS technology in two respects: expansion of the communication coverage area, and demonstration of application. This paper reports that the developed handover technology solves the communication blind zone in airports, and the communication coverage reached the aircraft flying vicinity of the airport through tracking with high-gain antennas. Also, the potential of the AeroMACS is made clear through application to the communication media of SWIM (System Wide Information Management) data sharing, and implementation of QoS (Quality of Service) functions for practical aeronautical communication.

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