We analyized the change in habitat of the sika deer (Cervus nippon) around Mt. Hiko in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. In 1999 and 2004, Fukuoka Prefecture conducted sika deer population survey in areas surrounding Mt Hiko. Based on this sika deer population survey, we constructed a potential map of sika deer habitat surrounding Mt. Hiko in Fukuoka Prefecture, and overlaid the developed maps with Geographic Information System (GIS). Our analysis showed that the habitat of sika deer over this 5 year period might be expanded recently in the study area.

In order to quantify forest stand canopy structure and leaf area we used LiDAR data to analyze the three-dimensional structure of forest canopies in the Appi and Naeba beech forests. Parameters related to canopy structure, including gap ratio, variations in canopy height and canopy surface area, were then calculated from the LiDAR data. Leaf area index (LAI) was estimated using a standard forest census. Comparisons between LAI and canopy characteristics suggested that LAI cannot be estimated using a single parameter. This may be because the foliage distribution within each tree crown is variable and has a complex branching and foliage clustering structure. To estimate the spatial distribution of LAI in a forested area, other parameters associated with beech canopy architecture, and their interactions, need to be investigated. This could facilitate the estimation of LAI from LiDAR data.

In this study, we estimated critical wind speed causing overturning and stem breakage with special focus on linking a mechanistic wind risk model, GALES, with growth and yield models for sugi (Cryptomeria japonica (L.f.) D.Don) and hinoki (Chamaecyparis obtuse (Sieb. Et Zucc.) Endl.). We found that lower initial planting density tended to increase the stability to the wind. In addition, stands with lower top tree height were more likely to be overturned than broken. To reduce wind damage, thinning would be recommended before the critical top tree height of sugi reaches 12m and that of hinoki reaches 14m. After this height, thinning might increase risk of wind damage. Although there were some limitations in the models developed for Japanese forests, the results indicated the most suitable timing to conduct thinnings, which could be utilized for long-term forest management in Japan.

The availability of Poisson regression model and linear mixed model for diameter growth modeling was examined comparing with ordinal regression model. Periodic diameter growth was modeled using initial diameter as the explanatory variable by Poisson regression model. The result showed that Poisson regression model was not superior to ordinal regression model. Also, linear mixed model was used to explain the variance of diameter growth. Using linear mixed model, the goodness-of-fit of diameter growth model was improved and it was suggested that coefficients of regression were estimated more precisely. This study suggested that linear mixed model should be used to analyze diameter growth derived from repeated measurements of permanent plots.

In growth analysis, irregular statistical models are needed to detect some property in a forest stand, such as thinning effect, self-thinning effect or difference of growth patterns. The irregular models do not permit to use usual statistical theory, and then, the properties of them were discussed by each problem. Recently, however, unified statistical theory for the irregular models has been developed. In this paper, some tests based on the locally conic model, which is representative irregular model, are elaborated. In addition, differences from usual tests are explained, and the need of the irregular models is investigated in growth analysis.

Kyushu Electric Power Co., Inc. is carrying on a project that handles from silviculture and harvesting to house building in order to make more profit in this severe situation for foresters. In this paper, as a basic research suggesting the optimal stand management plan to produce timber agreeing the buyers’ intention, we produced an optimal stand management model producing woodbased materials in the forest of Kyushu Electric Power Co., Inc. as an　example. The method is generally similar to a forest stand optimization model called DP-KYSS within the dynamic programming framework. We improved it that we could consider more detail about the purpose of this research. In the result, the profit (as SEV: soil expectation value) increased about 1.2 times compared with the present plan. However we have some problems, for example, the impracticality in the plan and the algorithmic instability.

The relation between snow damage and geographic factor was analyzed by using regression tree in Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria D.Don) stands in Oyabe City that had received damage by the heavy snow in January, 2004. As a result, the percentage of damage tree in each stand was the highest in the leeward slope, and was high also in a gentle slope and a concave curvature. The percentage of the damage tree in each 10-m grid was estimated from a slope azimuth, a slope inclination, and a profile curvature, and the hazard map of the snow damage for Japanese cedar was made.

The aim of this paper is the study about the relation with the national economy of a forest sector. And it is argued quantitatively what contribution to the national economy by the forest sector is possible. In this paper, we adopt Input-Output analysis of forest sectors in Austria, to which attention is attracted as an advanced group in forestry and forest products industry in recent years, and Japan. Results of our analysis are following: 1) In the case of the forest sector of Japan, domestic intermediate goods and domestic final demand should occupy greatly the position replaced with the export in Austria. 2) We will apply some indices in this paper to the numerical targets on a future policy, and so on. It is a subject to develop research to the relation between local job development, local finances, and a forest sector.

The Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) technology such as the IC tag and IC card has grown to the key technology in the IT industry. Combining with the network system, this technology realizes very convenient systems that are characterized by easy user interfaces. The distribution industry utilizes this technology for the traceability of foods, and the museums utilize for the management of visitors and the interpretation of exhibitions. This paper presents the recent status of RFID technology and gives some examples of practical application together with new ideas. As the application is not yet developed for the forestry information, the applicability of RFID technology is considered to the forestry management and forest products.

In this study, we first estimate price elasticity of lumber supply and demand for eight Japanese regions (Tohoku, Kanto, Hokuriku, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu), as well as China and Korea. With the estimated price elasticity for these regions, we secondly analyze the characteristics of the supply and demand structure through the spatial and inter-temporal partial equilibrium market model called JAFSEM (Japanese Forest Sector Model). Our analysis show that the price elasticity of lumber demand and supply of all products is small in the Kyushu and Chugoku regions, where the domestic timber and the US processed lumber is actively produced, while the price elasticity of lumber demand is large in the Kanto region as the major lumber consumption area. With the derived elasticity for JAFSEM, our simulation results show that Japanese regional lumber demand except Kyushu would increase, which would be met by Korea and China supplies.

The purpose of this study was to predict the amounts of carbon sequestered in the Article 3.3 forests under the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period on a national scale. The land use change from forests to other land covers and uses was regarded as the Afforestation and Reforestation (AR) activities, and the contrary land use change was regarded as the Deforestation (D) activities. The areas of AR and D activities from 1976 to 1995 were identified using the national statistics. Furthermore, the time series changes in the areas were extrapolated from 1995 to 2012, the end of the first commitment period, using the power series and logarithmic functions fitted to the observed AR and D areas, respectively. Then the age class distributions of cumulative AR areas at 2008 and 2013 and cumulative D area from 2008 to 2012 were identified, which were converted to the amounts of carbon stock by multiplying them by stem volumes, biomass expansion factors, wood density and carbon content. By the stock change method, the amounts of carbon sequestration in the Article 3.3 forests during the first commitment period was calculated as the carbon stock in cumulative AR forest at 2013 minus the carbon stock in cumulative AR forest at 2008 minus the carbon stock in cumulative D forest from 2008 to 2012. As a result, the Article 3.3 forests would sequester approximately 3.81 million t-C during the first commitment period (= 0.76 million t-C/yr).