Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies

Voting Behavior in the Brexit Referendum 2016

Three Types of Leaver

Takashi TOMISAKI

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 5-21
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_5

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On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union (EU). This article uses poll data of BES (British Election Study) and investigates the factors of voting which brought this historical result. After considering some factors of voting behavior (socio-demographics, issues such as economy, immigration and sovereignty, distrust of politics, nationalism, contact of media and political leader evaluation, etc.) separately, the multivariate statistical model which included those factors comprehensively is built. Next, the hypothesis that Leave voters have three types of group is inspected.

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The UK General Election of 2017

Brexit and the Return to Two-Party Politics

Tomokazu SAKANO

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 22-39
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_22

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While the UK general election of 2017 resulted in a hung parliament, the most notable feature of the election was the return to two-party politics. It means the transformation of British politics towards a new two-party politics based on age and the rising importance of division on the social liberal-conservative dimension. What kind of factors account for an unintended defeat of the Conservatives as well as the Labour’s increased support under Corbyn? What was the impact of Brexit on the 2017 general election? Since the European integration is a political issue that is driven primary by the social liberal-conservative division and cut across the classic economic left-right division, it has been one of the key drivers of party system fragmentation in Britain. The main argument of this article is, however, that the Brexit reversed the trend towards party system fragmentation by leading to the collapse of the UKIP and decline of the SNP support.

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Voting Behavior in the 2017 Presidential and Legislative Elections in France

Tadashi MASUDA

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 40-53
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_40

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Emmanuel Macron won against the far-right populist Marine Le PEN at the French Presidential Election in 2017. He has been no experience of elected public offices and is an outsider of the politics. Macron took advantage of a series of events to be the head of state. Some are chances, the others are planned. He manages all the situations to be the President. Opinion polls say that Le PEN cannot defeat any other major candidates in the second round. The constitutional referendum, 2000 to shorten the length of the Presidential term from seven to five make difficult to form divided government （cohabitation）. Winning of the preceding presidential election promotes linkage mechanism to build his/her newer government at the following legislative elections. The two election results could be naturally synchronized due to the Presidentialization of the politics.

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Result and Analysis of German Federal Election 2017

Takeshi KAWASAKI

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 54-65
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_54

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In this article the result of German Federal Election on September 24th 2017 will be analyzed in detail. In this election the governing parties, Christian Democrats and Christian Socialist Parties（CDU/CSU）and Social Democratic Party lost many seats in the parliament, Bundestag, while the right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany（AfD）succeed at first time in getting the seats. One of the causes of losing the election of CDU/CSU came from the critical reputation in the refugee welcome policy of Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2015, although the Chancellor still keep high level of supports. There are also analysis about other parties, namely the liberal party, the greens and the left party. After that the causes of victory of and the characteristics of the MPs of AfD are discussed, and the influence of new electoral law which caused to increase the seats in parliament to 709, is shortly introduced. At the end the situation after election is sketched in which at first building so called “Jamaika” coalition was attempted, after its failure the grand coalition will be again realized.

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The Recent Trend of Racial Gerrymandering Litigations in the United States

Tomoshi YOSHIKAWA

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 66-80
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_66

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This paper will analyze the recent trend of racial gerrymandering litigations in the United States from political and legal perspectives. In the 1990s, the conservative members of the Supreme Court recognized a new cause of action of unconstitutional racial gerrymander grounded in the Fourteenth Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause. Until recently this cause of action had been criticized by minority groups and liberal lawyers, because it could be an obstacle to liberal effort to create Majority-minority districts. However, it has for now become a significant tool for minority groups and Democrats to attack certain racially gerrymandered districts which is drawn by Republicans to advance their political benefits in the name of complying with Voting Rights Act. In a such situation, the liberal members of the Supreme Court vigorously recognize the racial gerrymandering claims.

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Court Cases on Prisoner Voting Restrictions

Makoto ARAI

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 81-93
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_81

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This article analyzes some court cases on prisoner voting restrictions in Japan. For this purpose, Chapter 2 briefly outlines the general principles on the voting rights and restrictions from the viewpoint of the Constitution of Japan. Chapter 3 explains some court decisions on voting restrictions in Japan. Chapter 4 describes two decisions about prisoner voting restrictions by Courts in Osaka. Chapter 5 considers two decisions about them by Courts in Hiroshima. And Chapter 6 presents some issues in the future.

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Issues of the Voting Rights of Persons with Disabilities, Persons being Bedridden

Based on Cases and Recent Legislative and Administrative Actions

Chie NISHIYAMA

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 94-105
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_94

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In this paper, I deal with the voting rights of persons with disabilities or diseases, persons who are bedridden. Japanese Supreme Court held that the guarantee of voting rights includes substantial guarantee of the exercise of voting rights. Then, restricting voting opportunities for those who cannot make it to their polling place due to a disability or diseases, restricting voting methods for those who cannot autograph themselves, infringes their voting rights and becomes a matter of constitution. However, not all persons mentioned above can vote by postal ballot, nor can vote by proxy for the sake of the fairness of the election, so alternative means should be established to ensure exercising the right to vote of them. Considering there are persons who are difficult to judge whether voting at the polling place is difficult, considering the limitation of proxy voting system, I review adequacy of current election laws and regulations.

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The Constitutional Meanings and Roles of Members of the Local Assemblies

Junta OKADA

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 106-117
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_106

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This article aims to analyze the discussions over the proper number of the seats of the members of the local assemblies in Japan and to consider the roles of members in democratic society from the perspective of constitutionalism. Actually, answering “the proper number” would be almost impossible and nonsense. It would be clear that the pressures of reducing the assemblies’ seats number have been caused by structural problem which is that it has been abandoned to make efforts to seek the substantial roles of the local assemblies and their members in spite of democratically changing the meanings of the local assemblies from the time of establishing the Constitution of Japan. Strengthen the ability of “organized” intelligence would be a key concept for the local assemblies to recover people’s confidence and improve its performance.

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Rethinking Freedom of “Political Activity” by “Legal Person”

Focusing on Public Interest Corporations and Certified Non-Profit Organizations in Japan

Satoshi YOKODAIDO

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 118-131
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_118

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In an existing law, a political activity by public interest corporations and certified non-profit organizations is limited in some degree. But constitutional scholarships usually do not show interest for these limitations. The main reason is that since the acquisition of the corporate status as a general incorporated association is secured, even if we cannot get other status with some kind of benefit, there is not any constitutional problem. I argue in this paper that if there is no rational reason to treat these corporations differently from other corporations with some benefits, it can become the problem of the clause 1 of Article 14 of the Constitution. Moreover, limiting the political activity by these corporations widely, objective value or social value of the freedom of association guaranteed in the clause 1 of Article 21 of the Constitution is spoiled. It is necessary to face these problems from such a viewpoint.

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Effect of electoral system inconsistency

Analysis of party differentiation

Hiroki OGAWA

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 132-145
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_132

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This article analyzes the effect of electoral system inconsistency on voters. There are the consistent districts and the inconsistent districts in Japan. Using this characteristic this article analyzes the effect of electoral system inconsistency on voters’party differentiation. In previous studies, there are few works on the effect on voters in comparison with that on party competition at the district level. The analysis using the survey data（JESⅢ）reveals that the voter in the inconsistent district less differentiates parties than that in the consistent district. This article also reveals that political interest affects the degree of this effect of electoral system inconsistency.

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Electoral Reform in the European Parliament

A Configurational Analysis

Sho NIIKAWA

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 146-160
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_146

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The aim of this article is to provide an explanation of electoral reform in the European Parliament. While empirical studies shed light on a uniqueness of the supranational institution, there is little attention given to a comparable analysis of the major reform. Theoretical studies which reliance on rational choice and/or historical institutional approaches paid less attention to assess the case. The limited number of observations gave rise to a difficulty of the causal inference. To fill the gap, this study attempts to apply a synthetic framework of electoral reforms to the European Parliament on the basis of a settheoretical notion. As a result, this analysis clarifies a mechanism for the elactoral reform generated by European political parties. Although national actors are considered as an intermediate variable in case of the European Parliament, but this study cannot reject a combined condition that is related to main hypotheses of electoral reform theory.

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Is the Senate chaos going to be resolved ?

Changes to Australia’s Senate voting systems in 2016 and consequences

Hiroya SUGITA

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 161-175
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_161

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In March 2016, major changes were made to the electoral systems for Australia’s Senate. While voters can still choose from either closed or open list, voters can decide preferences between parties in the former while it will be less arduous to cast formal vote in the latter. Soon after these changes were enacted, Prime Minister Turnbull dissolved the both Houses of parliament. The double-dissolution election held on 2 July saw Prime Minister scraped back with the barest margin. Judging from the outcomes, the purposes of the changes were achieved. Concerns raised in the parliament were not materialised. Changes were right in terms of making electoral system fairer. However, as a result of calling the unnecessary double-dissolution election, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, a far-right populist party, obtained a part of the balance of power in the Senate. The government may face serious difficulty in getting its legislative programs through the Senate.

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[title in Japanese]

2018 Volume 34 Issue 1 Pages 177-197
Published: 2018
Released on J-STAGE: July 16, 2021

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14854/jaes.34.1_177

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