To improve the accuracy and reliability of the real-time flood prediction, we developed the real-time river stage prediction model, using the hybrid deep neural network and physically based distributed rainfall-runoff model.
The main component of the hybrid model was 4-layer feed-forward artificial neural network. As the training method of the network, we applied the deep learning technique to improve the ability of network expression. To optimize the network weight, the stochastic gradient descent method based on the back propagation method was used. As a pre-training method, the denoising autoencoder was used. By using the predicted flow of the rainfall-runoff model as the input data of the neural network, we integrated two models into the hybrid model. The input data of the hybrid model were upstream water level, hourly change in water level, and estimated hourly change of catchment storage. The output is the change in water level at the prediction point. The prediction procedure of the hybrid model is as follows; first, calculate the downstream flow by the distributed model, and then estimate the hourly change of catchment's storage form the observed rainfall and calculated flow. The estimated change of catchment's storage is used as the input of the ANN model, and finally the ANN model can be calculated. In the training phase, hourly change of catchment storage can be calculated by the observed rainfall and flow data.
The developed model was applied to the one catchment of the OOYODO River, one of the first-grade rivers in Japan. The result of the hybrid model outperformed the ANN model and distributed model. Especially in the biggest flood event, performance of the hybrid model was significant improvement.
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