The market price of H. marmoreus rose during the first 9 years of its supply to the market, from 1973 to 1982, and then fell (Fig. 1). It sells at a very high price during the autumn season, and at a low price during the summer season (Fig. 2).
Let R
p be the year of grace, and h be the membership function of fuzzy model, the fuzzy equation X (R
p) predicts the future market price of H. marmoreus by analyzing some data from 1982 to 1992.
X (R
p) = (130.72, 4.7189/ (1-h))
L- (21.250, 0.000)
L ln (R
p-1981) (7)
These data and the equation are shown in figure 3.
From this equation, the estimated market price (yen) per 100 g of H. marmoreus is (69. 9, 74. 6, 78. 9) in 1995. On the other hand, the production cost per 100 g of H. marmoreus is (40. 1, 58. 7, 99. 6). These T. F. N. are shown in figure 4. As a result, the probability that the production cost is less than the estimated market price, is 75. 5 %. Conversely, the probability that the production cost is more than that is 14. 7 %. In the next place, Tables of cash income of 15 years hence is made by using the fuzzy equation X (R
p) and fuzzy yield (table 1). Let E be the borrowed capital ratio, I be the amount of initial investment, and j the depreciation ratio. The equal repayment (B) is as follows;
B∑
15i=11/ (1+j)
i=B1- (1+j) -
15/j= (1-ε) ∑
o1=-1I
i/ (1+j)
i (13)
In this table, the cash incomes are given in values of n years hence. So, the values are changed into present values. Let α be the cut level of T. F. N. showing cash income, In be the lowest limit of it, Sn be the highest limit of it, ii be the lowest limit of discount ratio, si be the highest limit of it. Then, the cumulative cash income (Γn) is as follows;
Γ
n (α) =∑
ni=0 [I
i (α) / (1+S
i (α))
i, S
i (α) / (1+i
i (α))
i ](15)
In the table 1, the T. F. N. of accumulative cash income (ten thousand yen) par 15 years by the cash income changed into present values is (587, 2900, 4405), and it by the representative ordinary number of cash income is (2727, 2846, 2969) (Fig. 5-8).
We conclude from the analyses described above that the economic condition of this mushroom factories is very good.
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