Journal of Architecture and Planning (Transactions of AIJ)
Online ISSN : 1881-8161
Print ISSN : 1340-4210
ISSN-L : 1340-4210
FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF BUILDINGS BY USING PROBABILITY FUNCTION OF REMAINDER
Toshihiro OSARAGIShiori KAMATA
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2006 Volume 71 Issue 609 Pages 41-46

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Abstract

In the previous paper, we proposed the probability function model that could describe the possibility and probability that buildings would be demolished or would remain within a certain time interval. In general use of the proposed model, however, the age of each building was necessary for estimating the value of the probability. In this paper, considering the extended applications of the model, alternative usage of the model is proposed by using the concept of the average decrepitude of buildings, which can be estimated from the time series digital maps. The utility and the efficiency of the alternative method is demonstrated by some numerical examples based on the actual data of Tokyo.

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© 2006 Architectural Institute of Japan
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