システムダイナミックスモデルによる都市成長と水需給の関連分析 : 札幌市におけるケーススタディ(都市計画)

抄録

The population of Sapporo increased from 615,628 in 1960 into 1,822,368 in 2000. Urban growth has been increasing water demand and Sapporo City has done its best to expand the capacity of water supply. This study firstly reproduced actual water supply and demand in Sapporo during 1960 to 2000 through System Dynamics (SD) Model. Water resource of Sapporo consists of underground water and Toyohira River. Toyohira River has Hoheikyo Dam and Jozankei Dam. The study secondly estimated the detail of water demand for urban life. The study thirdly carried out three cases of scenario simulation in order to evaluate effect and timing of construction of both dams. As the result, both dams were timely planned and constructed so that Sapporo has had no shortage of water during 1960 to 2000. The detail of water demand for urban life was also made clear through inner structure analysis of data by SD model.