ガザ戦争におけるエジプトの仲介外交とその内政的要因

全方位均衡論の観点による考察

抄録

This article examines Egypt’s active engagement in mediation diplomacy during the Gaza War. As no direct negotiation channels exist between Hamas and Israel, past conflicts have required third-party intermediaries to facilitate ceasefire discussions. Similarly, in the ongoing Gaza War, Egypt has served as a mediator in indirect negotiations.

Despite Egypt’s significant mediation efforts, a permanent ceasefire remains elusive more than a year into the conflict. However, Egypt continues to bear significant costs as a mediator. While humanitarian motivations drive Egypt’s efforts, self-interest also plays a critical role. This study focuses on that self-interest, particularly the internal factors of maintaining the al-Sisi regime, and discusses why Egypt is actively engaging in mediation diplomacy during the Gaza War from the perspective of omni-balancing theory.

This analysis clarifies that the Gaza War disrupted the al-Sisi regime’s delicate balance between internal and external threats, which it had achieved before the Gaza War. To restore this balance and ensure regime survival, al-Sisi has prioritized mediating negotiations. Consequently, Egypt’s mediation diplomacy is deeply influenced by internal regime considerations, with self-interest as the defining factor. Under these circumstances, Egypt has had little choice but to pursue its role as a third-party mediator in the Gaza War.