Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to clarify reasons for rice shortage in 1993, to estimate effects of its future partial import liberalization, and consider measures to sustain its production and distribution in Kyushu. The results of this study are as follows: (1) Reasons for shortage of rice in 1993 include reduction in paddy fields caused by policies, a poor harvest effected by climatic factors, such as, a cool summer and typhoons, and a decline in farmer's production incentives. (2) If rice production decreases by 10% due to future partial import liberalization, total production in Kyushu will shrink by 54.4 billion yen, which can be estimated by input-output analysis. (3) Because of low returns resulting from low prices and high production costs, rice farmers in Kyushu have been losing the incentive to maintain rice production. It is necessary to foster large-scale farm management bodies that can adopt new farming systems to economize production costs and to get high returns without arresting sustainable agricultural development. (4) In order to prevent the inflow of rice to Kyushu from the other areas, it is necessary to produce and to distribute high quality rice in Kyushu.