抄録
This paper investigates the dynamics of cocoon prices in pre-war Japan. After eliminating the common time effect from the prefectural price data, the ARMA and ARCH models for longitudinal data are applied. In each regression, we find statistical evidence of the existence of individual effects. These findings imply that the prefectural cocoon prices had idiosyncratic mean and variance, factors that are not captured by the common time effect.
The theory of investment under uncertainty is applied to the investment in mulberry fields. The result shows that the uncertainty, which is measured by the variance in cocoon prices, decreased the price elasticity of the investment.
