Multi Agent Simulationによる農業参入企業の定着要因分析

抄録

With the revision of the Agricultural Land Act in 2009,there has been an increase in the entry of industrial corporations into the agricultural business. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the retention factor of such agricultural market entrants by Multi-Agent simulation which is an accessible method to predict some dynamics of social systems based on a virtual model of society. In this analysis, we predicted the impact of such agricultural entrants in terms of agricultural land conservation and economic efficiency.
As a result, the following points were suggested. First,such agricultural market entrants do not contribute strongly to the dissolution of fallow paddy fields. Secondly, unless the withdrawal of agricultural market entrants from the area is forbidden, it is hard to avoid the early withdrawal of industrial corporations based on corporate decisionmaking. Thirdly, when employment costs and other fixed costs can be covered by the non-agricultural sectors of the company, such agricultural market entrants may be able to gain sufficient profits.
As mentioned above, it is thought from the aspect of sustainability and economic efficiency that the practice of the farm management by a private industrial corporation is not easy. However, the analytic model, used in this research, is based on the restrictive situation.
So, it should become possible to achieve the clarification of more realistic retention factors by improving this model.