南海トラフ巨大地震を想定した地域観に基づく移住意向分析

－安全性と強靭性に関する地域観に着目して－

抄録

In the process of restoration following the damage caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake, Kumamoto Earthquake, and other disasters, a rapid population shift was seen. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of the risk of Nankai megathrust earthquakes, which are expected to occur within tens of years (with the Pacific coast area of Japan as a hypocenter), on population shift. .
Specifically, I considered the effect of residents’ recognition of an area from the viewpoints of safety and resilience on their intention of migration based on the risk of earthquakes. An online survey was conducted in October 2015, and about 6,300 persons living in the prefectures located from Kochi Prefecture to Kanagawa Prefecture responded. As a result of predicting a migration tendency by logistic regression analysis, it became clear that the regional views were specified by various factors, but it was also shown that the regional views had not necessarily influenced a migration intention. Therefore, assuming easily a population influx resulting from the risk aversion of a huge earthquake disaster to a local area needs to be warned. These findings may have great implications for national land planning covering a future wide area.