タイにおける金融改革の評価と政策課題

抄録

This article deals with financial reform in Thailand between 1997 and 2007, focusing on how the regulatory authorities have coped with the financial crisis and rebuilt a sound banking sector.
The results of the analysis show that the regulatory authorities in Thailand have not yet succeeded in making a healthy and competitive financial industry as anticipated during the early stages of reform. First, it has taken longer for Thailand’s financial authorities to dispose of the non-performing loan (NPL) problem compared to other crisis-hit East Asian economies. The NPL ratio at the end of 2006 was much higher in Thailand than in South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia. Second, the size of Thailand’s banking sector has shrunk in terms of total assets, tier-1 capital, outstanding loans and so on. This means that the banking sector has not contributed enough to economic recovery since the crisis. Third, institutional arrangements for ensuring financial stability have been insufficient and have taken a long time to implement. It took about ten years to establish the Deposit Insurance Agency, to reform the Bank of Thailand Act and the Financial Institutions Act, and to establish a consolidated supervisory regime.
One of the important features of reform in the Thai banking sector is that the top three local banks have not experienced a dramatic change of ownership and capital structure. The family owners of these banks refused an injection of public money from the government and this partly explains why the capital bases of these banks are still small compared to those of South Korea’s banks, into which huge amounts of public money were injected. Thailand’s top banks have hesitated to merge with each other and to conclude strategic partnerships with foreign financial institutions, because the family owners do not want to lose their management power. As a consequence of this behavior, top banks have failed to build up enough capital for future investment and this has led to a lack of competitiveness.
Thai regulatory authorities should put pressure on Thai banks to comply with Basel II as required by the Bank for International Settlements in order to minimize financial risks. Other than that, more attention should be paid to the stability of non-banking sectors because these are expected to increase their holdings of financial products and overseas investments. Thai financial authorities are expected to announce the second Financial Sector Master Plan in the near future. This should open up the Thai financial sector to foreign financial institutions in order to create a more competitive environment in domestic financial markets.